Papers › Using Diffusion Ensembles to Estimate Uncertainty for End-to-End Autonomous Driving
Using Diffusion Ensembles to Estimate Uncertainty for End-to-End Autonomous Driving
Florian Wintel, Sigmund H. Høeg, Gabriel Kiss, Frank Lindseth
End-to-end planning systems for autonomous driving are improving rapidly, especially in closed-loop simulation environments like CARLA. Many such driving systems either do not consider uncertainty as part of the plan itself, or obtain it by using specialized representations that do not generalize. In this paper, we propose EnDfuser, an end-to-end driving system that uses a diffusion model as the trajectory planner. EnDfuser effectively leverages complex perception information like fused camera and LiDAR features, through combining attention pooling and trajectory planning into a single diffusion transformer module. Instead of committing to a single plan, EnDfuser produces a distribution of candidate trajectories (128 for our case) from a single perception frame through ensemble diffusion. By observing the full set of candidate trajectories, EnDfuser provides interpretability for uncertain, multi-modal future trajectory spaces, where there are multiple plausible options. EnDfuser achieves a competitive driving score of 70.1 on the Longest6 benchmark in CARLA with minimal concessions on inference speed. Our findings suggest that ensemble diffusion, used as a drop-in replacement for traditional point-estimate trajectory planning modules, can help improve the safety of driving decisions by modeling the uncertainty of the posterior trajectory distribution.
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Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
| Task | Dataset | Model | Metric | Value | Rank at snapshot | Leaderboard | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARLA longest6 | CARLA | EnDfuser + safety-rule | Driving Score | 70 | #5 of 21 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| CARLA longest6 | CARLA | EnDfuser + safety-rule | Infraction Score | 0.76 | #5 of 21 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| CARLA longest6 | CARLA | EnDfuser + safety-rule | Route Completion | 90 | #5 of 21 | Archive leaderboard | report |
Ranks are positions in the archive's leaderboards as they stood at the 2025-07-28 snapshot. Results published since then are not among these rows, so a rank here is not a current standing.
Methods
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