Papers › Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals
Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals
Nachiket Deo, Eric M. Wolff, Oscar Beijbom
Accurately predicting the future motion of surrounding vehicles requires reasoning about the inherent uncertainty in driving behavior. This uncertainty can be loosely decoupled into lateral (e.g., keeping lane, turning) and longitudinal (e.g., accelerating, braking). We present a novel method that combines learned discrete policy rollouts with a focused decoder on subsets of the lane graph. The policy rollouts explore different goals given current observations, ensuring that the model captures lateral variability. Longitudinal variability is captured by our latent variable model decoder that is conditioned on various subsets of the lane graph. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes motion prediction dataset, and qualitatively demonstrates excellent scene compliance. Detailed ablations highlight the importance of the policy rollouts and the decoder architecture.
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Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
| Task | Dataset | Model | Metric | Value | Rank at snapshot | Leaderboard | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | MinADE_10 | 0.94 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | MinADE_5 | 1.27 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | MinFDE_1 | 7.17 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | MissRateTopK_2_10 | 0.34 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | MissRateTopK_2_5 | 0.52 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Trajectory Prediction | nuScenes | PGP | OffRoadRate | 0.03 | #6 of 34 | Archive leaderboard | report |
Ranks are positions in the archive's leaderboards as they stood at the 2025-07-28 snapshot. Results published since then are not among these rows, so a rank here is not a current standing.
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