Prediction Intervals

Description from the archive archive 2025-07-28.

Benchmarks archive 2025-07-28

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Libraries

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Datasets archive 2025-07-28

2 datasets whose archive record lists this task, ordered by the archive's paper count.

Subtasks archive 2025-07-28

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Most implemented papers archive 2025-07-28

30 shown of 131 papers with code (309 tagged with this task in all), ordered by repositories listed in the archive, not by stars (the archive holds no stars, so PwC's “Social” and “Latest” sorts cannot be reproduced). Papers without a page here are shown as plain text.

• Conformalized Quantile Regression
  8 May 2019 5 repositories listed
  Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions.
• Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regression
  14 Apr 2016 5 repositories listed
  In the spirit of reproducibility, all of our empirical results can also be easily (re)generated using this package.
• Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts
  17 Aug 2022 3 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified
  We consider the problem of forming prediction sets in an online setting where the distribution generating the data is allowed to vary over time.
• Distributional Gradient Boosting Machines
  2 Apr 2022 3 repositories listed
  We present a unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework for regression tasks that models and predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable as a function of covariates.
• Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
  12 Feb 2024 2 repositories listed
  Our approach is based on pursuing the coarsest partition of the feature space that approximates conditional coverage.
• Conformal Convolution and Monte Carlo Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects
  7 Feb 2024 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 3 of 9 samples · 6 unverified
  Our approaches combine weighted conformal predictive systems with either analytic convolution of potential outcome distributions or Monte Carlo sampling, addressing covariate shift through propensity score weighting.
• Improving Adaptive Conformal Prediction Using Self-Supervised Learning
  23 Feb 2023 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 9 samples · 9 unverified
  However, the use of self-supervision beyond model pretraining and representation learning has been largely unexplored.
• Dual Accuracy-Quality-Driven Neural Network for Prediction Interval Generation
  13 Dec 2022 2 repositories listed
  In this paper, we present a method to learn prediction intervals for regression-based neural networks automatically in addition to the conventional target predictions.
• Conformal prediction set for time-series
  15 Jun 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 2 samples · 1 unverified · 2 pointer-only (licence)
  When building either prediction intervals for regression (with real-valued response) or prediction sets for classification (with categorical responses), uncertainty quantification is essential to studying complex…
• Multivariate Prediction Intervals for Random Forests
  4 May 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 3 samples · 3 unverified
  Accurate uncertainty estimates can significantly improve the performance of iterative design of experiments, as in Sequential and Reinforcement learning.
• Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series
  15 Feb 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 11 samples · 11 unverified
  While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general…
• Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging
  10 Feb 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 2 of 21 samples · 19 unverified
  Image-to-image regression is an important learning task, used frequently in biological imaging.
• Monitoring Model Deterioration with Explainable Uncertainty Estimation via Non-parametric Bootstrap
  27 Jan 2022 2 repositories listed
  In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in…
• Conformalized Survival Analysis
  17 Mar 2021 2 repositories listed
  Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors.
• Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series
  18 Oct 2020 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 2 of 2 samples · 0 unverified
  We develop a method to construct distribution-free prediction intervals for dynamic time-series, called \Verb|EnbPI| that wraps around any bootstrap ensemble estimator to construct sequential prediction intervals.
• XGBoostLSS -- An extension of XGBoost to probabilistic forecasting
  6 Jul 2019 2 repositories listed
  We propose a new framework of XGBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable.
• Adaptive Skip Intervals: Temporal Abstraction for Recurrent Dynamical Models
  14 Aug 2018 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified · 1 pointer-only (licence)
  We introduce a method which enables a recurrent dynamics model to be temporally abstract.
• LLM-Powered CPI Prediction Inference with Online Text Time Series
  11 Jun 2025 1 repository listed
  We develop a joint time series framework that combines monthly CPI data with LLM-generated daily CPI surrogates.
• Model uncertainty quantification using feature confidence sets for outcome excursions
  28 Apr 2025 1 repository listed
  Instead, this paper introduces a novel, model-agnostic framework for quantifying uncertainty in continuous and binary outcomes using confidence sets for outcome excursions, where the goal is to identify a subset of the…
• Adapting GT2-FLS for Uncertainty Quantification: A Blueprint Calibration Strategy
  9 Apr 2025 1 repository listed
  Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying reliable Deep Learning (DL) models in high-stakes applications.
• NeuroSep-CP-LCB: A Deep Learning-based Contextual Multi-armed Bandit Algorithm with Uncertainty Quantification for Early Sepsis Prediction
  20 Mar 2025 1 repository listed
  In critical care settings, timely and accurate predictions can significantly impact patient outcomes, especially for conditions like sepsis, where early intervention is crucial.
• Conformal Prediction under Levy-Prokhorov Distribution Shifts: Robustness to Local and Global Perturbations
  19 Feb 2025 1 repository listed
  Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees, yet its robustness under distribution shifts remains a significant challenge.
• coverforest: Conformal Predictions with Random Forest in Python
  24 Jan 2025 1 repository listed
  Conformal prediction provides a framework for uncertainty quantification, specifically in the forms of prediction intervals and sets with distribution-free guaranteed coverage.
• Uncertainty Estimation for Path Loss and Radio Metric Models
  10 Jan 2025 1 repository listed
  This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a…
• Neural Conformal Control for Time Series Forecasting
  24 Dec 2024 1 repository listed
  We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments.
• On the Role of Surrogates in Conformal Inference of Individual Causal Effects
  16 Dec 2024 1 repository listed
  Learning the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) is essential for personalized decision-making, yet causal inference has traditionally focused on aggregated treatment effects.
• Fundus Image-based Visual Acuity Assessment with PAC-Guarantees
  9 Dec 2024 1 repository listed
  Visual acuity (VA), which measures the clarity of vision at a distance, is a crucial metric for managing eye health.
• Conformal Prediction for Multimodal Regression
  25 Oct 2024 1 repository listed
  This paper introduces multimodal conformal regression.
• Target Strangeness: A Novel Conformal Prediction Difficulty Estimator
  24 Oct 2024 1 repository listed
  This paper introduces Target Strangeness, a novel difficulty estimator for conformal prediction (CP) that offers an alternative approach for normalizing prediction intervals (PIs).
• Building Conformal Prediction Intervals with Approximate Message Passing
  21 Oct 2024 1 repository listed
  Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful tool for building prediction intervals that are valid in a distribution-free way.

Syntology lines on 9 of the papers shown; no Syntology record for the others (a paper without an arXiv id cannot be joined to the graph, and absence from the graph layer is not a recorded non-run). “Ran” means the sample executed on a synthesized fixture, not that the paper's result was reproduced. Read from the graph 2026-09-24.