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AIforCOVID: predicting the clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19 applying AI to chest-X-rays. An Italian multicentre study
Paolo Soda, Natascha Claudia D'Amico, Jacopo Tessadori, Giovanni Valbusa, Valerio Guarrasi, Chandra Bortolotto, Muhammad Usman Akbar, Rosa Sicilia, Ermanno Cordelli, Deborah Fazzini, Michaela Cellina, Giancarlo Oliva, Giovanni Callea, Silvia Panella, Maurizio Cariati, Diletta Cozzi, Vittorio Miele, Elvira Stellato, Gian Paolo Carrafiello, Giulia Castorani, Annalisa Simeone, Lorenzo Preda, Giulio Iannello, Alessio Del Bue, Fabio Tedoldi, Marco Alì, Diego Sona, Sergio Papa
Recent epidemiological data report that worldwide more than 53 million people have been infected by SARS-CoV-2, resulting in 1.3 million deaths. The disease has been spreading very rapidly and few months after the identification of the first infected, shortage of hospital resources quickly became a problem. In this work we investigate whether chest X-ray (CXR) can be used as a possible tool for the early identification of patients at risk of severe outcome, like intensive care or death. CXR is a radiological technique that compared to computed tomography (CT) it is simpler, faster, more widespread and it induces lower radiation dose. We present a dataset including data collected from 820 patients by six Italian hospitals in spring 2020 during the first COVID-19 emergency. The dataset includes CXR images, several clinical attributes and clinical outcomes. We investigate the potential of artificial intelligence to predict the prognosis of such patients, distinguishing between severe and mild cases, thus offering a baseline reference for other researchers and practitioners. To this goal, we present three approaches that use features extracted from CXR images, either handcrafted or automatically by convolutional neuronal networks, which are then integrated with the clinical data. Exhaustive evaluation shows promising performance both in 10-fold and leave-one-centre-out cross-validation, implying that clinical data and images have the potential to provide useful information for the management of patients and hospital resources.
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