Conformal Prediction

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Most implemented papers archive 2025-07-28

30 shown of 277 papers with code (704 tagged with this task in all), ordered by repositories listed in the archive, not by stars (the archive holds no stars, so PwC's “Social” and “Latest” sorts cannot be reproduced). Papers without a page here are shown as plain text.

• Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction
  29 Sep 2020 5 repositories listed Syntology ran 19 of 63 samples · 44 unverified · 19 pointer-only (licence)
  Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings.
• Conformalized Quantile Regression
  8 May 2019 5 repositories listed
  Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions.
• A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
  15 Jul 2021 4 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 12 samples · 12 unverified
  Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models.
• Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methods
  14 Jun 2024 3 repositories listed Syntology ran 23 of 32 samples · 9 unverified · 12 pointer-only (licence)
  These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction.
• Conformal Prediction for Deep Classifier via Label Ranking
  10 Oct 2023 3 repositories listed Syntology ran 9 of 15 samples · 6 unverified · 15 pointer-only (licence)
  Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee.
• MAPIE: an open-source library for distribution-free uncertainty quantification
  25 Jul 2022 3 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 16 samples · 15 unverified
  Estimating uncertainties associated with the predictions of Machine Learning (ML) models is of crucial importance to assess their robustness and predictive power.
• An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls
  25 Dec 2017 3 repositories listed
  We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation.
• C-Adapter: Adapting Deep Classifiers for Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets
  12 Oct 2024 2 repositories listed
  Conformal prediction, as an emerging uncertainty quantification technique, typically functions as post-hoc processing for the outputs of trained classifiers.
• TorchCP: A Python Library for Conformal Prediction
  20 Feb 2024 2 repositories listed
  Conformal Prediction (CP) has attracted great attention from the research community due to its strict theoretical guarantees.
• Conformal prediction under ambiguous ground truth
  18 Jul 2023 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 6 of 19 samples · 13 unverified
  However, in many real-world scenarios, the labels Y₁,..., Yₙ are obtained by aggregating expert opinions using a voting procedure, resulting in a one-hot distribution ℙᵥₒₜₑ^(Y|X).
• Conformal Language Modeling
  16 Jun 2023 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified · 1 pointer-only (licence)
  Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is…
• Improving Adaptive Conformal Prediction Using Self-Supervised Learning
  23 Feb 2023 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 9 samples · 9 unverified
  However, the use of self-supervision beyond model pretraining and representation learning has been largely unexplored.
• Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning
  15 Feb 2023 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified · 1 pointer-only (licence)
  We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage.
• Conformal Risk Control
  4 Aug 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified
  We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function.
• "Even if ..." -- Diverse Semifactual Explanations of Reject
  5 Jul 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 8 samples · 8 unverified
  In this work, we propose to explain rejects by semifactual explanations, an instance of example-based explanation methods, which them self have not been widely considered in the XAI community yet.
• Conformal prediction set for time-series
  15 Jun 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 2 samples · 1 unverified · 2 pointer-only (licence)
  When building either prediction intervals for regression (with real-valued response) or prediction sets for classification (with categorical responses), uncertainty quantification is essential to studying complex…
• Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series
  15 Feb 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 0 of 11 samples · 11 unverified
  While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general…
• Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging
  10 Feb 2022 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 2 of 21 samples · 19 unverified
  Image-to-image regression is an important learning task, used frequently in biological imaging.
• Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers
  18 Oct 2021 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 1 of 24 samples · 23 unverified · 3 pointer-only (licence)
  However, using CP as a separate processing step after training prevents the underlying model from adapting to the prediction of confidence sets.
• Conformalized Survival Analysis
  17 Mar 2021 2 repositories listed
  Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors.
• Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series
  18 Oct 2020 2 repositories listed Syntology ran 2 of 2 samples · 0 unverified
  We develop a method to construct distribution-free prediction intervals for dynamic time-series, called \Verb|EnbPI| that wraps around any bootstrap ensemble estimator to construct sequential prediction intervals.
• The Trilemma of Truth in Large Language Models
  30 Jun 2025 1 repository listed
  These findings provide a reliable method for verifying what LLMs "know" and how certain they are of their probabilistic internal knowledge.
• Response Quality Assessment for Retrieval-Augmented Generation via Conditional Conformal Factuality
  26 Jun 2025 1 repository listed Syntology ran 0 of 3 samples · 3 unverified · 3 pointer-only (licence)
  Compared to existing RAG auto-evaluation methods, Conformal-RAG offers statistical guarantees on the quality of refined sub-claims, ensuring response reliability without the need for ground truth answers.
• CertDW: Towards Certified Dataset Ownership Verification via Conformal Prediction
  16 Jun 2025 1 repository listed
  If the number of PP values smaller than WR exceeds a threshold, the suspicious model is regarded as having been trained on the protected dataset.
• Enhancing Adversarial Robustness with Conformal Prediction: A Framework for Guaranteed Model Reliability
  9 Jun 2025 1 repository listed
  As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-risk applications, robust defenses against adversarial attacks and reliable performance guarantees become paramount.
• Efficient Robust Conformal Prediction via Lipschitz-Bounded Networks
  5 Jun 2025 1 repository listed
  When combined with a 1-Lipschitz robust network, we demonstrate that our lip-rcp method outperforms state-of-the-art results in both the size of the robust CP sets and computational efficiency in medium and large-scale…
• Conformal Prediction for Zero-Shot Models
  30 May 2025 1 repository listed Syntology ran 1 of 1 samples · 0 unverified · 1 pointer-only (licence)
  In this work, we investigate the capabilities of CLIP models under the split conformal prediction paradigm, which provides theoretical guarantees to black-box models based on a small, labeled calibration set.
• Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
  25 May 2025 1 repository listed
  We then introduce Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS), which produce the smallest prediction sets that ensure conditional coverage in this setting.
• A Generic Framework for Conformal Fairness
  22 May 2025 1 repository listed Syntology ran 15 of 19 samples · 4 unverified
  Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models.
• Multivariate Latent Recalibration for Conditional Normalizing Flows
  22 May 2025 1 repository listed
  Second, we propose latent recalibration (LR), a novel post-hoc model recalibration method that learns a transformation of the latent space with finite-sample bounds on latent calibration.

Syntology lines on 19 of the papers shown; no Syntology record for the others (a paper without an arXiv id cannot be joined to the graph, and absence from the graph layer is not a recorded non-run). “Ran” means the sample executed on a synthesized fixture, not that the paper's result was reproduced. Read from the graph 2026-09-24.