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VCformer: Variable Correlation Transformer with Inherent Lagged Correlation for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

19 May 2024arXiv:2405.11470archive 2025-07-28

Yingnan Yang, Qingling Zhu, Jianyong Chen

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has been extensively applied across diverse domains, such as weather prediction and energy consumption. However, current studies still rely on the vanilla point-wise self-attention mechanism to capture cross-variable dependencies, which is inadequate in extracting the intricate cross-correlation implied between variables. To fill this gap, we propose Variable Correlation Transformer (VCformer), which utilizes Variable Correlation Attention (VCA) module to mine the correlations among variables. Specifically, based on the stochastic process theory, VCA calculates and integrates the cross-correlation scores corresponding to different lags between queries and keys, thereby enhancing its ability to uncover multivariate relationships. Additionally, inspired by Koopman dynamics theory, we also develop Koopman Temporal Detector (KTD) to better address the non-stationarity in time series. The two key components enable VCformer to extract both multivariate correlations and temporal dependencies. Our extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VCformer, achieving top-tier performance compared to other state-of-the-art baseline models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/CSyyn/VCformer.

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Tasks

Multivariate Time Series ForecastingTime SeriesTime Series Forecasting

Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28

TaskDatasetModelMetricValueRank at snapshotLeaderboardReport
Time Series Forecasting ETTh1 (336) Multivariate VCformer MAE 0.449 #53 of 72 Archive leaderboard report
Time Series Forecasting ETTh1 (336) Multivariate VCformer MSE 0.473 #53 of 72 Archive leaderboard report

Ranks are positions in the archive's leaderboards as they stood at the 2025-07-28 snapshot. Results published since then are not among these rows, so a rank here is not a current standing.

Methods

Absolute Position EncodingsAdamAttentionBPEDense ConnectionsDropoutLabel SmoothingLayer NormalizationLinear LayerMulti-Head AttentionPosition-Wise Feed-Forward LayerResidual ConnectionSoftmaxTransformer

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