Papers › Variational Gibbs Inference for Statistical Model Estimation from Incomplete Data
Variational Gibbs Inference for Statistical Model Estimation from Incomplete Data
Vaidotas Simkus, Benjamin Rhodes, Michael U. Gutmann
Statistical models are central to machine learning with broad applicability across a range of downstream tasks. The models are controlled by free parameters that are typically estimated from data by maximum-likelihood estimation or approximations thereof. However, when faced with real-world data sets many of the models run into a critical issue: they are formulated in terms of fully-observed data, whereas in practice the data sets are plagued with missing data. The theory of statistical model estimation from incomplete data is conceptually similar to the estimation of latent-variable models, where powerful tools such as variational inference (VI) exist. However, in contrast to standard latent-variable models, parameter estimation with incomplete data often requires estimating exponentially-many conditional distributions of the missing variables, hence making standard VI methods intractable. We address this gap by introducing variational Gibbs inference (VGI), a new general-purpose method to estimate the parameters of statistical models from incomplete data. We validate VGI on a set of synthetic and real-world estimation tasks, estimating important machine learning models such as variational autoencoders and normalising flows from incomplete data. The proposed method, whilst general-purpose, achieves competitive or better performance than existing model-specific estimation methods.
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