Papers › Uncovering simultaneous breakthroughs with a robust measure of disruptiveness
Uncovering simultaneous breakthroughs with a robust measure of disruptiveness
Munjung Kim, Sadamori Kojaku, Yong-Yeol Ahn
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Progress in science and technology is punctuated by disruptive innovation and breakthroughs. Researchers have characterized these disruptions to explore the factors that spark such innovations and to assess their long-term trends. However, although understanding disruptive breakthroughs and their drivers hinges upon accurately quantifying disruptiveness, the core metric used in previous studies -- the disruption index -- remains insufficiently understood and tested. Here, after demonstrating the critical shortcomings of the disruption index, including its conflicting evaluations for simultaneous discoveries, we propose a new, continuous measure of disruptiveness based on a neural embedding framework that addresses these limitations. Our measure not only better distinguishes disruptive works, such as Nobel Prize-winning papers, from others, but also reveals simultaneous disruptions by allowing us to identify the "twins" that have the most similar future context. By offering a more robust and precise lens for identifying disruptive innovations and simultaneous discoveries, our study provides a foundation for deepening insights into the mechanisms driving scientific breakthroughs while establishing a more equitable basis for evaluating transformative contributions.
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