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Two-stage approach for the inference of the source of high-dimension and complex chemical data in forensic science
Madeline Ausdemore, Cedric Neumann, Christopher Saunders, Douglas Armstrong, Cyril Muehlethaler
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Forensic scientists are often criticised for the lack of quantitative support for the conclusions of their examinations. While scholars advocate for the use of a Bayes factor to quantify the weight of forensic evidence, it is often impossible to assign the necessary probability measures to perform likelihood-based inference for high-dimensional and complex data. To address this issue, we revisit a two-stage inference framework and leverage the properties of kernel functions to offer a method that allows for statistically supporting the inference of the identity of source of sets of trace and control objects by way of a single test. Our method is generic in that it can be easily tailored to any type of data encountered in forensic science or pattern recognition, and our method does not depend on the dimension or the type of the considered data. The application of our method to paint evidence shows that this type of evidence carries substantial probative value. Finally, our approach can easily be extended to other evidence types such as glass, fibres and dust.
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