Papers › The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes
The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes
Simon P. von der Maase
I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict events in tandem with Gaussian processes to estimate temporospatial conflict trends. These trends can be studied to gain insight into conflict traps, diffusion and tempo-spatial conflict exposure in general; they can also be used to control for such phenomenons given other estimation tasks; lastly, the approach allow us to extrapolate the estimated tempo-spatial conflict patterns into future temporal units, thus facilitating powerful, stat-of-the-art, conflict forecasts. Importantly, these results are achieved via a relatively parsimonious framework using only one data source: past conflict patterns.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Methods
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections