Papers › Statistics of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal -- II. The evolution of the...
Statistics of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal -- II. The evolution of the power spectrum error-covariance
Rajesh Mondal, Somnath Bharadwaj, Suman Majumdar
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The EoR 21-cm signal is expected to become highly non-Gaussian as reionization progresses. This severely affects the error-covariance of the EoR 21-cm power spectrum which is important for predicting the prospects of a detection with ongoing and future experiments. Most earlier works have assumed that the EoR 21-cm signal is a Gaussian random field where (1) the error variance depends only on the power spectrum and the number of Fourier modes in the particular k bin, and (2) the errors in the different k bins are uncorrelated. Here we use an ensemble of simulated 21-cm maps to analyze the error-covariance at various stages of reionization. We find that even at the very early stages of reionization (x̅_(HI) ∼0.9) the error variance significantly exceeds the Gaussian predictions at small length-scales (k > 0.5 Mpc⁻¹) while they are consistent at larger scales. The errors in most k bins (both large and small scales), are however found to be correlated. Considering the later stages (x̅_(HI) = 0.15), the error variance shows an excess in all k bins within k ≥0.1 Mpc⁻¹, and it is around 200 times larger than the Gaussian prediction at k ∼1 Mpc⁻¹. The errors in the different k bins are all also highly correlated, barring the two smallest k bins which are anti-correlated with the other bins. Our results imply that the predictions for different 21-cm experiments based on the Gaussian assumption underestimate the errors, and it is necessary to incorporate the non-Gaussianity for more realistic predictions.
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