Papers › Song Hit Prediction: Predicting Billboard Hits Using Spotify Data

Song Hit Prediction: Predicting Billboard Hits Using Spotify Data

22 Aug 2019arXiv:1908.08609archive 2025-07-28

Kai Middlebrook, Kian Sheik

In this work, we attempt to solve the Hit Song Science problem, which aims to predict which songs will become chart-topping hits. We constructed a dataset with approximately 1.8 million hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four models on our dataset. Our best model was random forest, which was able to predict Billboard song success with 88% accuracy.

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Music Information RetrievalPrediction

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