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Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability
Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Martin Bruckner, Liuhuaying Yang, Stefan Thurner
Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here, we reveal the losses of $125$ food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in $192$ countries and territories using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying 10⁸ shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of up to 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects, and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Whilst previous studies often treated products in isolation and did not account for product conversion during production, our model studies the global propagation of local supply shocks along both production and trade relations, allowing comparison of different response strategies.
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