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Predictions of planet detections with near infrared radial velocities in the up-coming SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search
Ryan Cloutier, Étienne Artigau, Xavier Delfosse, Lison Malo, Claire Moutou, René Doyon, Jean-Francois Donati, Andrew Cumming, Xavier Dumusque, Élodie Hébrard, Kristen Menou
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The SPIRou near infrared spectro-polarimeter is destined to begin science operations at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in mid-2018. One of the instrument's primary science goals is to discover the closest exoplanets to the Solar System by conducting a 3-5 year long radial velocity survey of nearby M dwarfs at an expected precision of ∼1 m s⁻¹; the SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search (SLS-PS). In this study we conduct a detailed Monte-Carlo simulation of the SLS-PS using our current understanding of the occurrence rate of M dwarf planetary systems and physical models of stellar activity. From simultaneous modelling of planetary signals and activity, we predict the population of planets detected in the SLS-PS. With our fiducial survey strategy and expected instrument performance over a nominal survey length of ∼3 years, we expect SPIRou to detect 85.3^(+29.3)_(-12.4) planets including 20.0^(+16.8)_(-7.2) habitable zone planets and 8.1^(+7.6)_(-3.2) Earth-like planets from a sample of 100 M1-M8.5 dwarfs out to 11 pc. By studying mid-to-late M dwarfs previously inaccessible to existing optical velocimeters, SPIRou will put meaningful constraints on the occurrence rate of planets around those stars including the value of η_⊕ at an expected level of precision of ≲45%. We also predict a subset of 46.7^(+16.0)_(-6.0) planets may be accessible with dedicated high-contrast imagers on the next generation of ELTs including 4.9^(+4.7)_(-2.0) potentially imagable Earth-like planets. Lastly, we compare the results of our fiducial survey strategy to other foreseeable survey versions to quantify which strategy is optimized to reach the SLS-PS science goals. The results of our simulations are made available to the community on github.
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