Papers › posteriordb: Testing, Benchmarking and Developing Bayesian Inference Algorithms

posteriordb: Testing, Benchmarking and Developing Bayesian Inference Algorithms

6 Jul 2024arXiv:2407.04967links table onlyarchive 2025-07-28

Måns Magnusson, Jakob Torgander, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Lu Zhang, Bob Carpenter, Aki Vehtari

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The generality and robustness of inference algorithms is critical to the success of widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new general-purpose inference algorithm, whether it involves Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximation, the fundamental problem arises in evaluating its accuracy and efficiency across a range of representative target models. To solve this problem, we propose posteriordb, a database of models and data sets defining target densities along with reference Monte Carlo draws. We further provide a guide to the best practices in using posteriordb for model evaluation and comparison. To provide a wide range of realistic target densities, posteriordb currently comprises 120 representative models and has been instrumental in developing several general inference algorithms.

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