Papers › On the Unknowable Limits to Prediction
On the Unknowable Limits to Prediction
Jiani Yan, Charles Rahal
We propose a rigorous decomposition of predictive error, highlighting that not all 'irreducible' error is genuinely immutable. Many domains stand to benefit from iterative enhancements in measurement, construct validity, and modeling. Our approach demonstrates how apparently 'unpredictable' outcomes can become more tractable with improved data (across both target and features) and refined algorithms. By distinguishing aleatoric from epistemic error, we delineate how accuracy may asymptotically improve--though inherent stochasticity may remain--and offer a robust framework for advancing computational research.
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