Papers › Neural Inference of Gaussian Processes for Time Series Data of Quasars
Neural Inference of Gaussian Processes for Time Series Data of Quasars
Egor Danilov, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Brian Nord
The study of quasar light curves poses two problems: inference of the power spectrum and interpolation of an irregularly sampled time series. A baseline approach to these tasks is to interpolate a time series with a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model, in which the spectrum is inferred using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). However, the DRW model does not describe the smoothness of the time series, and MLE faces many problems in terms of optimization and numerical precision. In this work, we introduce a new stochastic model that we call Convolved Damped Random Walk (CDRW). This model introduces a concept of smoothness to a DRW, which enables it to describe quasar spectra completely. We also introduce a new method of inference of Gaussian process parameters, which we call Neural Inference. This method uses the powers of state-of-the-art neural networks to improve the conventional MLE inference technique. In our experiments, the Neural Inference method results in significant improvement over the baseline MLE (RMSE: 0.318 →0.205, 0.464 →0.444). Moreover, the combination of both the CDRW model and Neural Inference significantly outperforms the baseline DRW and MLE in interpolating a typical quasar light curve (χ²: 0.333 →0.998, 2.695 →0.981). The code is published on GitHub.
In Syntology Open this paper in Syntology's Atlas, the map of the papers in Syntology's graph and their citations.
For agents, Syntology's MCP tool lists every function and class Syntology harvested from this paper and whether it ran (how to connect): get_harvested_code_for_paper(arxiv_id="2211.10305")
Code
Syntology Ran 1 of 1 code samples harvested from 1 repository linked to this paper; 0 have no recorded run. Of those that ran: 1 ran with no contract checked.
By repository: official repository: 1 sample from 1 repository, 1 ran. The run record, sample by sample. “Ran” means executed on a synthesized input, not that the code is correct or reproduces the paper.
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
1 sample harvested; 1 ran; 0 honoured the contract we drafted; 0 have no recorded run. Read from Syntology's graph 2026-09-24; that is when this build read the record, not when the samples ran.
Licence: 0 of the 1 sample are pointer only, meaning Syntology does not serve that copy's text. This page shows no code text for any sample; each one links to its file in the repository.
Harvested from deepskies/neural_gp. “Ran” means the sample executed on a synthesized input. It does not mean the output is correct, and nothing here reproduces the paper's results. “Honoured” and “violated” refer to a contract Syntology drafted from the code itself; “our draft was wrong” and “fixture could not drive it” are failures of Syntology's instrument, not of the code.
Each sample ends with its code_sha256, Syntology's identity for that exact code. An agent fetches the stored sample with Syntology's MCP tool get_code(code_sha256="…") (how to connect); click an identity to copy that call.
Repository labels, per sample. official repository: The archive marks this repository official for the paper. named in the paper: The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official. community (archive-listed): In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper. found in paper text by Syntology: Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted. community: Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested. Samples from a repository marked official are listed first. Licence labels name the repository's licence as recorded at harvest. “Pointer only” means Syntology does not serve that copy's text, for one of four reasons: no licence file was found; the licence was not identified; the licence is recorded as permissive but that copy's record is not marked cleared; or the licence is outside the permissive list Syntology serves text under (MIT, Apache-2.0, BSD and similar). Some licences outside that list permit redistribution, such as WTFPL, and GPL-3.0 under its conditions; they are simply not on the list. Hover a licence label for the reason. File links open the file on GitHub at the default branch, which may have changed since the harvest.
3473d4b0d159274b · report
Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Methods
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections