Papers › Modelling Solar Orbiter Dust Detection Rates in Inner Heliosphere as a Poisson Process
Modelling Solar Orbiter Dust Detection Rates in Inner Heliosphere as a Poisson Process
Samuel Kočiščák, Andreas Kvammen, Ingrid Mann, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Audun Theodorsen, Arnaud Zaslavsky
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Solar Orbiter provides dust detection capability in inner heliosphere, but estimating physical properties of detected dust from the collected data is far from straightforward. First, a physical model for dust collection considering a Poisson process is formulated. Second, it is shown that dust on hyperbolic orbits is responsible for the majority of dust detections with Solar Orbiter's Radio and Plasma Waves (SolO/RPW). Third, the model for dust counts is fitted to SolO/RPW data and parameters of the dust are inferred, namely: radial velocity, hyperbolic meteoroids predominance, and solar radiation pressure to gravity ratio as well as uncertainties of these. Non-parametric model fitting is used to get the difference between inbound and outbound detection rate and dust radial velocity is thus estimated. A hierarchical Bayesian model is formulated and applied to available SolO/RPW data. The model uses the methodology of Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, estimating parameters of dust and their uncertainties. SolO/RPW dust observations can be modelled as a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework and observations up to this date are consistent with the hyperbolic dust model with an additional background component. Analysis suggests a radial velocity of the hyperbolic component around (63 ±7) km/s with the predominance of hyperbolic dust about (78 ±4) %. The results are consistent with hyperbolic meteoroids originating between 0.02 AU and 0.1 AU and showing substantial deceleration, which implies effective solar radiation pressure to gravity ratio ≳0.5. The flux of hyperbolic component at 1 AU is found to be (1.1 ±0.2) ×10⁻⁴ m⁻²s⁻¹ and the flux of background component at 1 AU is found to be (5.4 ±1.5) ×10⁻⁵ m⁻²s⁻¹.
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