Papers › Leveraging External Factors in Household-Level Electrical Consumption Forecasting...

Leveraging External Factors in Household-Level Electrical Consumption Forecasting using Hypernetworks

17 Jun 2025arXiv:2506.14472archive 2025-07-28

Fabien Bernier, Maxime Cordy, Yves Le Traon

Accurate electrical consumption forecasting is crucial for efficient energy management and resource allocation. While traditional time series forecasting relies on historical patterns and temporal dependencies, incorporating external factors -- such as weather indicators -- has shown significant potential for improving prediction accuracy in complex real-world applications. However, the inclusion of these additional features often degrades the performance of global predictive models trained on entire populations, despite improving individual household-level models. To address this challenge, we found that a hypernetwork architecture can effectively leverage external factors to enhance the accuracy of global electrical consumption forecasting models, by specifically adjusting the model weights to each consumer. We collected a comprehensive dataset spanning two years, comprising consumption data from over 6000 luxembourgish households and corresponding external factors such as weather indicators, holidays, and major local events. By comparing various forecasting models, we demonstrate that a hypernetwork approach outperforms existing methods when associated to external factors, reducing forecasting errors and achieving the best accuracy while maintaining the benefits of a global model.

PaperPDFCode

Code

serval-uni-lu/hypernetworks-time-series officialmentioned in paperpytorch report

Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.

Code Syntology ran Syntology

Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.

Tasks

Time Series Forecastingenergy management

Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28

No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.

Methods

HyperNetwork

Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections