Papers › Increasing certainty in systems biology models using Bayesian multimodel inference
Increasing certainty in systems biology models using Bayesian multimodel inference
Nathaniel Linden-Santangeli, Jin Zhang, Boris Kramer, Padmini Rangamani
Mathematical models are indispensable to the system biology toolkit for studying the structure and behavior of intracellular signaling networks. A common approach to modeling is to develop a system of equations that encode the known biology using approximations and simplifying assumptions. As a result, the same signaling pathway can be represented by multiple models, each with its set of underlying assumptions, which opens up challenges for model selection and decreases certainty in model predictions. Here, we use Bayesian multimodel inference to develop a framework to increase certainty in systems biology models. Using models of the extracellular regulated kinase (ERK) pathway, we first show that multimodel inference increases predictive certainty and yields predictors that are robust to changes in the set of available models. We then show that predictions made with multimodel inference are robust to data uncertainties introduced by decreasing the measurement duration and reducing the sample size. Finally, we use multimodel inference to identify a new model to explain experimentally measured sub-cellular location-specific ERK activity dynamics. In summary, our framework highlights multimodel inference as a disciplined approach to increasing the certainty of intracellular signaling activity predictions.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Methods
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections