Papers › Improving COVID-19 Forecasting using eXogenous Variables
Improving COVID-19 Forecasting using eXogenous Variables
Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, Xiaochuan Li, Yogesh Chaudhari, Shophine Sivaraja, Aishwarya Venkataraj, Indrajeet Javeri, Yuan Ke, Ismailcem Arpinar, Nicole Lazar, John Miller
In this work, we study the pandemic course in the United States by considering national and state levels data. We propose and compare multiple time-series prediction techniques which incorporate auxiliary variables. One type of approach is based on spatio-temporal graph neural networks which forecast the pandemic course by utilizing a hybrid deep learning architecture and human mobility data. Nodes in this graph represent the state-level deaths due to COVID-19, edges represent the human mobility trend and temporal edges correspond to node attributes across time. The second approach is based on a statistical technique for COVID-19 mortality prediction in the United States that uses the SARIMA model and eXogenous variables. We evaluate these techniques on both state and national levels COVID-19 data in the United States and claim that the SARIMA and MCP models generated forecast values by the eXogenous variables can enrich the underlying model to capture complexity in respectively national and state levels data. We demonstrate significant enhancement in the forecasting accuracy for a COVID-19 dataset, with a maximum improvement in forecasting accuracy by 64.58% and 59.18% (on average) over the GCN-LSTM model in the national level data, and 58.79% and 52.40% (on average) over the GCN-LSTM model in the state level data. Additionally, our proposed model outperforms a parallel study (AUG-NN) by 27.35% improvement of accuracy on average.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections