Papers › Improved estimation of the effective reproduction number with heterogeneous...
Improved estimation of the effective reproduction number with heterogeneous transmission rates and reporting delays
Xin-Jian Xu, Song-Jie He, Li-Jie Zhang
The archive published only this paper's code-link row. Authors, date and abstract are from arXiv's metadata (CC0), read from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12 where its title matched the archive's; the title is the archive's.
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective reproduction number, denoted as Rₜ, is widely used to assess the transmissibility of the disease at a given time t. Real-time estimating this metric is vital for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. Traditional statistical inference often relies on two assumptions. One is that samples are assumed to be drawn from a homogeneous population distribution, neglecting significant variations in individual transmission rates. The other is the ideal case reporting assumption, disregarding time delays between infection and reporting. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate these critical factors and assess their impact on estimating Rₜ. We first introduce negative binomial and Weibull distributions to characterize transmission rates and reporting delays, respectively, based on which observation and state equations are formulated. Then, we employ a Bayesian filtering for estimating Rₜ. Finally, validation using synthetic and empirical data demonstrates a significant improvement in estimation accuracy compared to conventional methods that ignore these factors.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections