Papers › HMM-LSTM Fusion Model for Economic Forecasting

HMM-LSTM Fusion Model for Economic Forecasting

1 Jan 2025arXiv:2501.02002archive 2025-07-28

Guhan Sivakumar

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates HMM-derived hidden states and means as additional features for LSTM modeling, aiming to enhance the interpretability and predictive performance of the models. The research begins with data collection and preprocessing, followed by the implementation of the HMM to identify hidden states representing distinct economic conditions. Subsequently, LSTM models are trained using the original and augmented data sets, allowing for comparative analysis and evaluation. The results demonstrate that incorporating HMM-derived data improves the predictive accuracy of LSTM models, particularly in capturing complex temporal patterns and mitigating the impact of volatile economic conditions. Additionally, the paper discusses the implementation of Integrated Gradients for model interpretability and provides insights into the economic dynamics reflected in the forecasting outcomes.

PaperPDFCode

Code

gs1803/hmm-rnn-fusion-economic-forecasting officialmentioned in papertf report

Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.

Code Syntology ran Syntology

Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.

Tasks

model

Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28

No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.

Methods

LSTMSigmoid ActivationTanh Activation

Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections