Papers › Forward-modelling the Luminosity, Distance, and Size distributions of the Milky Way Satellites
Forward-modelling the Luminosity, Distance, and Size distributions of the Milky Way Satellites
Viraj Manwadkar, Andrey Kravtsov
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We use \texttt{GRUMPY}, a simple regulator-type model for dwarf galaxy formation and evolution, to forward model the dwarf galaxy satellite population of the Milky Way (MW) using the Caterpillar zoom-in simulation suite. We show that luminosity and distance distributions of the model satellites are consistent with the distributions measured in the DES, PS1 and SDSS surveys, even without including a model for the orphan galaxies. We also show that our model for dwarf galaxy sizes can simultaneously reproduce the observed {\it distribution} of stellar half-mass radii, r_(1/2), of the MW satellites and the overall r_(1/2)-M_⋆ relation exhibited by observed dwarf galaxies. The model predicts that some of the observed faint stellar systems with r_(1/2)<10 pc are ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. Scaling of the stellar mass M_⋆ and peak halo mass Mₚₑₐₖ for the model satellites is not described by a power law, but has a clear flattening of M_⋆-Mₚₑₐₖ scaling at Mₚₑₐₖ<10⁸ M_⊙ imprinted by reionization. As a result, the fraction of low mass haloes (Mₚₑₐₖ < 10⁸ M_⊙) hosting galaxies with M_V<0 is predicted to be 50% at Mₚₑₐₖ ∼3.6 ×10⁷ M_⊙. We find that such high fraction at that halo mass helps to reproduce the number of dwarf galaxies discovered recently in the HSC-SSP survey. Using the model we forecast that there should be the total of 440⁺²⁰¹₋₁₄₇ (68\% confidence interval) MW satellites with M_V < 0 and r_(1/2) > 10 pc within 300 kpc and make specific predictions for the HSC-SSP, DELVE-WIDE and LSST surveys.
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