Papers › Empirical Power Analysis of a Statistical Test to Quantify Gerrymandering
Empirical Power Analysis of a Statistical Test to Quantify Gerrymandering
Ranthony A. Clark, Susan Glenn, Harlin Lee, Soledad Villar
The archive published only this paper's code-link row. Authors, date and abstract are from arXiv's metadata (CC0), read from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12 where its title matched the archive's; the title is the archive's.
Gerrymandering is a pervasive problem within the US political system. In the past decade, methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and statistical outlier tests have been proposed to quantify gerrymandering and were used as evidence in several high-profile legal cases. We perform an empirical power analysis of one such hypothesis test from Chikina et al (2020). We generate a family of biased North Carolina congressional district maps using the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections and assess under which conditions the outlier test fails to flag them at the specified Type I error level. The power of the outlier test is found to be relatively stable across political parties, election years, lengths of the MCMC chain and effect sizes. The main effect on the power of the test is shown to be the choice of the bias metric. This is the first work that computationally verifies the power of statistical tests used in gerrymandering cases.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections