Papers › Dynamical Survival Analysis with Controlled Latent States

Dynamical Survival Analysis with Controlled Latent States

30 Jan 2024arXiv:2401.17077archive 2025-07-28

Linus Bleistein, Van-Tuan Nguyen, Adeline Fermanian, Agathe Guilloux

We consider the task of learning individual-specific intensities of counting processes from a set of static variables and irregularly sampled time series. We introduce a novel modelization approach in which the intensity is the solution to a controlled differential equation. We first design a neural estimator by building on neural controlled differential equations. In a second time, we show that our model can be linearized in the signature space under sufficient regularity conditions, yielding a signature-based estimator which we call CoxSig. We provide theoretical learning guarantees for both estimators, before showcasing the performance of our models on a vast array of simulated and real-world datasets from finance, predictive maintenance and food supply chain management.

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