Papers › DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models

DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models

31 Jan 2023arXiv:2301.13629archive 2025-07-28

Haomin Wen, Youfang Lin, Yutong Xia, Huaiyu Wan, Qingsong Wen, Roger Zimmermann, Yuxuan Liang

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have emerged as the dominant model for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Despite their success, they fail to model intrinsic uncertainties within STG data, which cripples their practicality in downstream tasks for decision-making. To this end, this paper focuses on probabilistic STG forecasting, which is challenging due to the difficulty in modeling uncertainties and complex ST dependencies. In this study, we present the first attempt to generalize the popular denoising diffusion probabilistic models to STGs, leading to a novel non-autoregressive framework called DiffSTG, along with the first denoising network UGnet for STG in the framework. Our approach combines the spatio-temporal learning capabilities of STGNNs with the uncertainty measurements of diffusion models. Extensive experiments validate that DiffSTG reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by 4%-14%, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 2%-7% over existing methods on three real-world datasets.

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