Papers › Day-Ahead Hourly Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Multi-Attributed...
Day-Ahead Hourly Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Multi-Attributed Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network
Hyeon-Ju Jeon, Min-Woo Choi, O-Joun Lee
Solar irradiance forecasting is fundamental and essential for commercializing solar energy generation by overcoming output variability. Accurate forecasting depends on historical solar irradiance data, correlations between various meteorological variables (e.g., wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness), and influences between the weather contexts of spatially adjacent regions. However, existing studies have been limited to spatiotemporal analysis of a few variables, which have clear correlations with solar irradiance (e.g., sunshine duration), and do not attempt to establish atmospheric contextual information from a variety of meteorological variables. Therefore, this study proposes a novel solar irradiance forecasting model that represents atmospheric parameters observed from multiple stations as an attributed dynamic network and analyzes temporal changes in the network by extending existing spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) models. By comparing the proposed model with existing models, we also investigated the contributions of (i) the spatial adjacency of the stations, (ii) temporal changes in the meteorological variables, and (iii) the variety of variables to the forecasting performance. We evaluated the performance of the proposed and existing models by predicting the hourly solar irradiance at observation stations in the Korean Peninsula. The experimental results showed that the three features are synergistic and have correlations that are difficult to establish using single-aspect analysis.
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Tasks
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
| Task | Dataset | Model | Metric | Value | Rank at snapshot | Leaderboard | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Irradiance Forecasting | ASOS Data | MST-GCN | Accuracy | 0.79 | #1 of 1 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Solar Irradiance Forecasting | ASOS Data | MST-GCN | MAE | 0.12 | #1 of 1 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Solar Irradiance Forecasting | ASOS Data | MST-GCN | MSE | 0.23 | #1 of 1 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Solar Irradiance Forecasting | ASOS Data | MST-GCN | R^2 | 0.94 | #1 of 1 | Archive leaderboard | report |
| Solar Irradiance Forecasting | ASOS Data | MST-GCN | Variance | 0.94 | #1 of 1 | Archive leaderboard | report |
Ranks are positions in the archive's leaderboards as they stood at the 2025-07-28 snapshot. Results published since then are not among these rows, so a rank here is not a current standing.
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