Papers › Datamodels: Predicting Predictions from Training Data

Datamodels: Predicting Predictions from Training Data

1 Feb 2022arXiv:2202.00622archive 2025-07-28

Andrew Ilyas, Sung Min Park, Logan Engstrom, Guillaume Leclerc, Aleksander Madry

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S →ℝ that for any subset of S′ ⊂S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S′ -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S′ and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

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