Papers › Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Prediction of Cardiovascular ICU Patients
Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Prediction of Cardiovascular ICU Patients
Zhendong Wang, Isak Samsten, Panagiotis Papapetrou
In recent years, machine learning methods have been rapidly implemented in the medical domain. However, current state-of-the-art methods usually produce opaque, black-box models. To address the lack of model transparency, substantial attention has been given to develop interpretable machine learning methods. In the medical domain, counterfactuals can provide example-based explanations for predictions, and show practitioners the modifications required to change a prediction from an undesired to a desired state. In this paper, we propose a counterfactual explanation solution for predicting the survival of cardiovascular ICU patients, by representing their electronic health record as a sequence of medical events, and generating counterfactuals by adopting and employing a text style-transfer technique. Experimental results on the MIMIC-III dataset strongly suggest that text style-transfer methods can …
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