Papers › Complex multiannual cycles of Mycoplasma pneumoniae: persistence and the role of stochasticity
Complex multiannual cycles of Mycoplasma pneumoniae: persistence and the role of stochasticity
Bjarke Frost Nielsen, Sang Woo Park, Emily Howerton, Olivia Frost Lorentzen, Mogens H. Jensen, Bryan T. Grenfell
The epidemiological dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae are characterized by complex and poorly understood multiannual cycles, posing challenges for forecasting. Using Bayesian methods to fit a seasonally forced transmission model to long-term surveillance data from Denmark (1958-1995, 2010-2025), we investigate the mechanisms driving recurrent outbreaks of M. pneumoniae. The period of the multiannual cycles (predominantly approx. 5 years in Denmark) are explained as a consequence of the interaction of two time-scales in the system, one intrinsic and one extrinsic (seasonal). While it provides an excellent fit to shorter time series (a few decades), we find that the deterministic model eventually settles into an annual cycle, failing to reproduce the observed 4-5-year periodicity long-term. Upon further analysis, the system is found to exhibit transient chaos and thus high sensitivity to stochasticity. We show that environmental (but not purely demographic) stochasticity can sustain the multi-year cycles via stochastic resonance. The disruptive effects of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on M. pneumoniae circulation constitute a natural experiment on the effects of large perturbations. Consequently, the effects of NPIs are included in the model and medium-term predictions are explored. Our findings highlight the intrinsic sensitivity of M. pneumoniae dynamics to perturbations and interventions, underscoring the limitations of deterministic epidemic models for long-term prediction. More generally, our results emphasize the potential role of stochasticity as a driver of complex cycles across endemic and recurring pathogens.
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