Papers › Climate-economy projections under shared socioeconomic pathways and net-zero scenarios
Climate-economy projections under shared socioeconomic pathways and net-zero scenarios
Daisuke Murakami, Pavel V. Shevchenko, Tomoko Matsui, Aleksandar Arandjelović, Tor A. Myrvoll
We examine future trajectories of the social cost of carbon, global temperatures, and carbon concentrations using the cost-benefit Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model calibrated to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under two mitigation scenarios: achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and by 2100. The DICE model is calibrated to align industrial and land-use carbon emissions with projections from six leading process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs): IMAGE, MESSAGE--GLOBIOM, AIM/CGE, GCAM, REMIND--MAgPIE and WITCH--GLOBIOM. We find that even with aggressive mitigation (net-zero by 2050), global temperatures are projected to exceed 2°C above preindustrial levels by 2100, with estimates ranging from 2.5°C to 2.7°C across all SSPs and IAMs considered. Under the more lenient mitigation scenario (net-zero by 2100), global temperatures are projected to rise to between 3°C and 3.7°C by 2100. Additionally, the social cost of carbon is estimated to increase from approximately USD 30--50 in 2025 to USD 250--400 in 2100.
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