Papers › CESAR: A Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR for High-Resolution Wind Forecasting

CESAR: A Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR for High-Resolution Wind Forecasting

13 Dec 2024arXiv:2412.10578archive 2025-07-28

Matthew Bonas, Paolo Giani, Paola Crippa, Stefano Castruccio

An accurate and timely assessment of wind speed and energy output allows an efficient planning and management of this resource on the power grid. Wind energy, especially at high resolution, calls for the development of nonlinear statistical models able to capture complex dependencies in space and time. This work introduces a Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR (CESAR), a spatio-temporal, neural network-based model which first extracts the spatial features with a deep convolutional autoencoder, and then models their dynamics with an echo state network. We also propose a two-step approach to also allow for computationally affordable inference, while also performing uncertainty quantification. We focus on a high-resolution simulation in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), an area where wind farm planning is currently ongoing, and show how CESAR is able to provide improved forecasting of wind speed and power for proposed building sites by up to 17% against the best alternative methods.

PaperPDFCode

Code

mbonasnd/2025cesar officialmentioned in papertf report

Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.

Code Syntology ran Syntology

Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.

Tasks

ManagementUncertainty Quantification

Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28

No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.

Methods

FocusSPEED

Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections