Papers › Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Tasks

Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Tasks

29 Feb 2024arXiv:2402.19460archive 2025-07-28

Bálint Mucsányi, Michael Kirchhof, Seong Joon Oh

Uncertainty quantification, once a singular task, has evolved into a spectrum of tasks, including abstained prediction, out-of-distribution detection, and aleatoric uncertainty quantification. The latest goal is disentanglement: the construction of multiple estimators that are each tailored to one and only one source of uncertainty. This paper presents the first benchmark of uncertainty disentanglement. We reimplement and evaluate a comprehensive range of uncertainty estimators, from Bayesian over evidential to deterministic ones, across a diverse range of uncertainty tasks on ImageNet. We find that, despite recent theoretical endeavors, no existing approach provides pairs of disentangled uncertainty estimators in practice. We further find that specialized uncertainty tasks are harder than predictive uncertainty tasks, where we observe saturating performance. Our results provide both practical advice for which uncertainty estimators to use for which specific task, and reveal opportunities for future research toward task-centric and disentangled uncertainties. All our reimplementations and Weights & Biases logs are available at https://github.com/bmucsanyi/untangle.

Code

Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.

Code Syntology ran Syntology

19 samples harvested; 14 ran; 0 honoured the contract we drafted; 5 have no recorded run. Read from Syntology's graph 2026-09-24; that is when this build read the record, not when the samples ran.

Licence: 0 of the 19 samples are pointer only, meaning Syntology does not serve that copy's text. This page shows no code text for any sample; each one links to its file in the repository.

Harvested from 2 repositories linked to this paper, official or community; each sample names its own and says which. “Ran” means the sample executed on a synthesized input. It does not mean the output is correct, and nothing here reproduces the paper's results. “Honoured” and “violated” refer to a contract Syntology drafted from the code itself; “our draft was wrong” and “fixture could not drive it” are failures of Syntology's instrument, not of the code.

Each sample ends with its code_sha256, Syntology's identity for that exact code. An agent fetches the stored sample with Syntology's MCP tool get_code(code_sha256="…") (how to connect); click an identity to copy that call.

Repository labels, per sample. official repository: The archive marks this repository official for the paper. named in the paper: The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official. community (archive-listed): In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper. found in paper text by Syntology: Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted. community: Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested. Samples from a repository marked official are listed first. Licence labels name the repository's licence as recorded at harvest. “Pointer only” means Syntology does not serve that copy's text, for one of four reasons: no licence file was found; the licence was not identified; the licence is recorded as permissive but that copy's record is not marked cleared; or the licence is outside the permissive list Syntology serves text under (MIT, Apache-2.0, BSD and similar). Some licences outside that list permit redistribution, such as WTFPL, and GPL-3.0 under its conditions; they are simply not on the list. Hover a licence label for the reason. File links open the file on GitHub at the default branch, which may have changed since the harvest.

Tasks

Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28

No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.

Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections