Papers › Bankruptcy probabilities under non-Poisson inspection

Bankruptcy probabilities under non-Poisson inspection

24 Aug 2023arXiv:2308.12769links table onlyarchive 2025-07-28

Florine Kuipers, Michel Mandjes, Sara Morcy

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This paper concerns an insurance firm's surplus process observed at renewal inspection times, with a focus on assessing the probability of the surplus level dropping below zero. For various types of inter-inspection time distributions, an explicit expression for the corresponding transform is given. In addition, Cram\'er-Lundberg type asymptotics are established. Also, an importance sampling based Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed, and is shown to be logarithmically efficient.

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