Papers › Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics

Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics

10 Jul 2010arXiv:1007.1727links table onlyarchive 2025-07-28

Glen Cowan, Kyle Cranmer, Eilam Gross, Ofer Vitells

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We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow one to account for systematic uncertainties. Explicit formulae for the asymptotic distributions of test statistics are derived using results of Wilks and Wald. We motivate and justify the use of a representative data set, called the "Asimov data set", which provides a simple method to obtain the median experimental sensitivity of a search or measurement as well as fluctuations about this expectation.

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