Papers › Analyzing Taiwanese traffic patterns on consecutive holidays through forecast...
Analyzing Taiwanese traffic patterns on consecutive holidays through forecast reconciliation and prediction-based anomaly detection techniques
Mahsa Ashouri, Frederick Kin Hing Phoa, Marzia A. Cremona
The archive published only this paper's code-link row. Authors, date and abstract are from arXiv's metadata (CC0), read from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12 where its title matched the archive's; the title is the archive's.
This study explores traffic patterns on Taiwanese highways during consecutive holidays and focuses on understanding Taiwanese highway traffic behavior. We propose a prediction-based detection method for finding highway traffic anomalies using reconciled ordinary least squares (OLS) forecasts and bootstrap prediction intervals. Two fundamental features of traffic flow time series -- namely, seasonality and spatial autocorrelation -- are captured by adding Fourier terms in OLS models, spatial aggregation (as a hierarchical structure mimicking the geographical division in regions, cities, and stations), and a reconciliation step. Our approach, although simple, is able to model complex traffic datasets with reasonable accuracy. Being based on OLS, it is efficient and permits avoiding the computational burden of more complex methods. Analyses of Taiwan's consecutive holidays in 2019, 2020, and 2021 (73 days) showed strong variations in anomalies across different directions and highways. Specifically, we detected some areas and highways comprising a high number of traffic anomalies (north direction-central and southern regions-highways No. 1 and 3, south direction-southern region-highway No.3), and others with generally normal traffic (east and west direction). These results could provide important decision-support information to traffic authorities.
Code
Repository list and official/mentioned flags are the archive's, frozen 2025-07-28. Reachability, where shown, is from one Syntology probe window (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18); repositories not probed show nothing. GitHub stars are not tracked.
Code Syntology ran Syntology
Not run by Syntology. Nothing on this page verifies that the listed code works.
Results from the paper archive 2025-07-28
No leaderboard rows for this paper in the archive.
Report a problem or propose a change · a person checks every report against the paper or source before anything changes; decisions are listed on /corrections