Papers › Accurate Inference for Adaptive Linear Models

Accurate Inference for Adaptive Linear Models

18 Dec 2017ICML 2018 7arXiv:1712.06695archive 2025-07-28

Yash Deshpande, Lester Mackey, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Matt Taddy

Estimators computed from adaptively collected data do not behave like their non-adaptive brethren. Rather, the sequential dependence of the collection policy can lead to severe distributional biases that persist even in the infinite data limit. We develop a general method -- 𝐖-decorrelation -- for transforming the bias of adaptive linear regression estimators into variance. The method uses only coarse-grained information about the data collection policy and does not need access to propensity scores or exact knowledge of the policy. We bound the finite-sample bias and variance of the 𝐖-estimator and develop asymptotically correct confidence intervals based on a novel martingale central limit theorem. We then demonstrate the empirical benefits of the generic 𝐖-decorrelation procedure in two different adaptive data settings: the multi-armed bandit and the autoregressive time series.

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gsbDBI/adaptive-confidence-intervals mentioned on GitHubGPL-3.0 report

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Linear Regression

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