{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/withdrawal-success-estimation","title":"Withdrawal Success Estimation","arxiv_id":"2202.02994","date":"2022-02-07","proceeding":null,"authors":["Hayden Brown"],"abstract":"Given a geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process, a log-Levy alpha-stable lower bound is constructed for the terminal wealth of a regular investing schedule. Using a transformation, the lower bound is applied to a schedule of withdrawals occurring after an initial investment. As a result, an upper bound is described on the probability to complete a given schedule of withdrawals. For withdrawals of a constant amount at equidistant times, necessary conditions are given on the initial investment and parameters of the wealth process such that $k$ withdrawals can be made with 95% confidence. When the initial investment is in the S&P Composite Index and $2\\leq k\\leq 16$, then the initial investment must be at least $k$ times the amount of each withdrawal.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.02994v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.02994v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"withdrawal-success-estimation","repo_url":"https://github.com/haydenbrown/investing","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}