{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/variability-as-a-predictor-a-bayesian","title":"Variability as a Predictor: A Bayesian Variability Model for Small Samples and Few Repeated Measures","arxiv_id":"1411.2961","date":"2014-11-11","proceeding":null,"authors":["Joshua F. Wiley","Bei Bei","John Trinder","Rachel Manber"],"abstract":"Whilst most psychological research focuses on differences in means, a growing body of literature demonstrates the value of considering differences in intra-individual variability. Compared to the number of methods available for analyzing mean differences, there is a paucity of methods available for analyzing intra-individual variability, particularly when variability is treated as a predictor. In the present article, we first reviewed methods of analyzing intra-individual variability as an outcome, including the individual standard deviation (ISD) and some recent methods. We then introduced a novel Bayesian method for analyzing intra-individual variability as a predictor. To make this method easily accessible to the research community, we developed an open source R package, VARIAN. To compare the accuracy of parameter estimates using the proposed Bayesian analysis against the ISD as a predictor in a regression, we carried out a simulation study. We then demonstrated, using empirical data, how the estimated intra-individual variability derived from the proposed Bayesian analysis can be used to answer the following two questions: (1) is intra-individual variability in daily time-in-bed associated with subjective sleep quality? (2) does subjective sleep quality mediate the association between time-in-bed variability and depressive symptoms? We concluded with a discussion of methodological and practical considerations that can help guide researchers in choosing methods for evaluating intra-individual variability.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.2961v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1411.2961v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"variability-as-a-predictor-a-bayesian","repo_url":"https://github.com/ElkhartGroup/VARIAN","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null},{"paper_slug":"variability-as-a-predictor-a-bayesian","repo_url":"https://github.com/JWiley/varian","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}