{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/valid-sequential-inference-on-probability","title":"Valid sequential inference on probability forecast performance","arxiv_id":"2103.08402","date":"2021-03-15","proceeding":null,"authors":["Alexander Henzi","Johanna F. Ziegel"],"abstract":"Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal expected score. In this paper, we construct e-values for testing the statistical significance of score differences of competing forecasts in sequential settings. E-values have been proposed as an alternative to p-values for hypothesis testing, and they can easily be transformed into conservative p-values by taking the multiplicative inverse. The e-values proposed in this article are valid in finite samples without any assumptions on the data generating processes. They also allow optional stopping, so a forecast user may decide to interrupt evaluation taking into account the available data at any time and still draw statistically valid inference, which is generally not true for classical p-value based tests. In a case study on postprocessing of precipitation forecasts, state-of-the-art forecasts dominance tests and e-values lead to the same conclusions.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.08402v3","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.08402v3.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"valid-sequential-inference-on-probability","repo_url":"https://github.com/AlexanderHenzi/eprob","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null},{"paper_slug":"valid-sequential-inference-on-probability","repo_url":"https://github.com/yjchoe/ComparingForecasters","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"MIT"}}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}