{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/unbiased-likelihood-free-inference-of-the","title":"Unbiased likelihood-free inference of the Hubble constant from light standard sirens","arxiv_id":"2104.02728","date":"2021-04-06","proceeding":null,"authors":["Francesca Gerardi","Stephen M. Feeney","Justin Alsing"],"abstract":"Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In the traditional Bayesian framework, accounting for selection effects in the likelihood requires calculation of the expected number (or fraction) of detections as a function of the parameters describing the population and cosmology; a potentially costly and/or inaccurate process. This calculation can, however, be bypassed completely by performing the inference in a framework in which the likelihood is never explicitly calculated, but instead fit using forward simulations of the data, which naturally include the selection. This is Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). Here, we use density-estimation LFI, coupled to neural-network-based data compression, to infer $H_0$ from mock catalogues of binary neutron star mergers, given noisy redshift, distance and peculiar velocity estimates for each object. We demonstrate that LFI yields statistically unbiased estimates of $H_0$ in the presence of selection effects, with precision matching that of sampling the full Bayesian hierarchical model. Marginalizing over the bias increases the $H_0$ uncertainty by only $6\\%$ for training sets consisting of $O(10^4)$ populations. The resulting LFI framework is applicable to population-level inference problems with selection effects across astrophysics.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.02728v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.02728v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"unbiased-likelihood-free-inference-of-the","repo_url":"https://github.com/frgerardi/LFIH0_BNS","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"jax","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":"https://syntology.ai/paper/2104.02728","atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2104.02728","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2104.02728"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-25T09:33:49+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. Samples come from repositories linked to the paper, official or community; repo_kind says which.","repos":[{"provenance":"external:paperswithcode_snapshot_2025-07-28","url":"https://github.com/frgerardi/LFIH0_BNS","reach":null}],"summary":{"ran_fixture":1},"by_repo_kind":{"official":{"samples":1,"ran":1,"repositories":1}},"repo_kind_vocabulary":{"official":"The archive marks this repository official for the paper","named_in_paper":"The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official","listed":"In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper","found_in_text":"Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted","community":"Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested"},"n_pointer_only_for_licence":1,"samples":[{"code_sha256_prefix":"32b6d66226a93fc0","entry":"normalization_function","repo":"frgerardi/LFIH0_BNS","repo_kind":"official","path":"modules/LFI.py","file_url":"https://github.com/frgerardi/LFIH0_BNS/blob/HEAD/modules/LFI.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"ran_fixture","verification_level":1,"contract_check":"RAISES","metamorphic_tier":null,"behaviour_fingerprint":false,"licence":"NONE","inline_ok":false,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"32b6d66226a93fc0"}}]},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}