{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/the-progression-of-disparities-within-the","title":"The Progression of Disparities within the Criminal Justice System: Differential Enforcement and Risk Assessment Instruments","arxiv_id":"2305.07575","date":"2023-05-12","proceeding":null,"authors":["Miri Zilka","Riccardo Fogliato","Jiri Hron","Bradley Butcher","Carolyn Ashurst","Adrian Weller"],"abstract":"Algorithmic risk assessment instruments (RAIs) increasingly inform decision-making in criminal justice. RAIs largely rely on arrest records as a proxy for underlying crime. Problematically, the extent to which arrests reflect overall offending can vary with the person's characteristics. We examine how the disconnect between crime and arrest rates impacts RAIs and their evaluation. Our main contribution is a method for quantifying this bias via estimation of the amount of unobserved offenses associated with particular demographics. These unobserved offenses are then used to augment real-world arrest records to create part real, part synthetic crime records. Using this data, we estimate that four currently deployed RAIs assign 0.5--2.8 percentage points higher risk scores to Black individuals than to White individuals with a similar \\emph{arrest} record, but the gap grows to 4.5--11.0 percentage points when we match on the semi-synthetic \\emph{crime} record. We conclude by discussing the potential risks around the use of RAIs, highlighting how they may exacerbate existing inequalities if the underlying disparities of the criminal justice system are not taken into account. In light of our findings, we provide recommendations to improve the development and evaluation of such tools.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.07575v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.07575v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"the-progression-of-disparities-within-the","repo_url":"https://github.com/bradley-butcher/pipeline_paper_code","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":"https://syntology.ai/paper/2305.07575","atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2305.07575","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2305.07575"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-25T09:33:49+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. 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