{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/tail-calibration-of-probabilistic-forecasts","title":"Tail calibration of probabilistic forecasts","arxiv_id":"2407.03167","date":"2024-07-03","proceeding":null,"authors":["Sam Allen","Jonathan Koh","Johan Segers","Johanna Ziegel"],"abstract":"Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts, existing evaluation techniques are ill-suited to the evaluation of tail properties of such forecasts. However, these tail properties are often of particular interest to forecast users due to the severe impacts caused by extreme outcomes. In this work, we introduce a general notion of tail calibration for probabilistic forecasts, which allows forecasters to assess the reliability of their predictions for extreme outcomes. We study the relationships between tail calibration and standard notions of forecast calibration, and discuss connections to peaks-over-threshold models in extreme value theory. Diagnostic tools are introduced and applied in a case study on European precipitation forecasts","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03167v3","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.03167v3.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"tail-calibration-of-probabilistic-forecasts","repo_url":"https://github.com/sallen12/tailcalibration","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":"https://syntology.ai/paper/2407.03167","atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2407.03167","mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}