{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/stratification-of-uncertainties-recalibrated","title":"Stratification of uncertainties recalibrated by isotonic regression and its impact on calibration error statistics","arxiv_id":"2306.05180","date":"2023-06-08","proceeding":null,"authors":["Pascal Pernot"],"abstract":"Abstract Post hoc recalibration of prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression problems by isotonic regression might present a problem for bin-based calibration error statistics (e.g. ENCE). Isotonic regression often produces stratified uncertainties, i.e. subsets of uncertainties with identical numerical values. Partitioning of the resulting data into equal-sized bins introduces an aleatoric component to the estimation of bin-based calibration statistics. The partitioning of stratified data into bins depends on the order of the data, which is typically an uncontrolled property of calibration test/validation sets. The tie-braking method of the ordering algorithm used for binning might also introduce an aleatoric component. I show on an example how this might significantly affect the calibration diagnostics.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05180v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.05180v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"stratification-of-uncertainties-recalibrated","repo_url":"https://github.com/ppernot/isotonic","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"regression-1","task_name":"regression"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"hoc","method_name":"HOC"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}