{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/steganography-and-probabilistic-risk-analysis","title":"Steganography and Probabilistic Risk Analysis: A Game Theoretical Framework for Quantifying Adversary Advantage and Impact","arxiv_id":"2412.17950","date":"2024-12-23","proceeding":null,"authors":["Obinna Omego","Farzana Rahman","Jean-Christophe Nebel"],"abstract":"In environments where adversaries engage in active surveillance and covert communication, defenders face the dual challenge of when to deploy steganography and whether it yields operational benefit. We present a novel game-theoretic model of steganographic operations that captures strategic interactions between a defender and an adversary through calibrated monetary primitives and nonlinear utility mappings. We derive mixed-strategy equilibria that drive conditional and unconditional success rates for hiding and detection, and introduce a time-varying adversarial advantage metric that quantifies when an attacker's incentives temporarily exceed the defender's detection capacity. By linking this advantage to a new currency-unit risk measure, we extend the classical risk formula into a decision-aware, monetised framework. A Monte Carlo simulation pipeline embeds payload shifts, detector learning, and scenario uncertainty to deliver distributions of success probabilities and expected losses rather than a static snapshot. Empirical calibration using breach cost statistics, regulatory fine caps, and expert elicitations supports strategic prescriptions for steganographic deployment, detector investment, and governance trade-offs. Our results provide actionable insight into when steganography strengthens organisational resilience, and when it may yield marginal or negative value.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.17950v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.17950v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"steganography-and-probabilistic-risk-analysis","repo_url":"https://github.com/Omego-Obinna/Risk-and-Adversary-Advantage","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}