{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/statistical-prediction-of-extreme-events-from","title":"Statistical prediction of extreme events from small datasets","arxiv_id":"2201.08294","date":"2022-01-20","proceeding":null,"authors":["Alberto Racca","Luca Magri"],"abstract":"We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate from the small imperfect datasets and predict the heavy-tail statistics that describe the events. We find that the networks correctly predict the events and improve the statistics of the system with respect to the training data in almost all cases analysed. This opens up new possibilities for the statistical prediction of extreme events in turbulence.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.08294v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.08294v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"statistical-prediction-of-extreme-events-from","repo_url":"https://github.com/magrilab/esn-mfe","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}