{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/selection-by-prediction-with-conformal-p","title":"Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values","arxiv_id":"2210.01408","date":"2022-10-04","proceeding":null,"authors":["Ying Jin","Emmanuel J. Candès"],"abstract":"Decision making or scientific discovery pipelines such as job hiring and drug discovery often involve multiple stages: before any resource-intensive step, there is often an initial screening that uses predictions from a machine learning model to shortlist a few candidates from a large pool. We study screening procedures that aim to select candidates whose unobserved outcomes exceed user-specified values. We develop a method that wraps around any prediction model to produce a subset of candidates while controlling the proportion of falsely selected units. Building upon the conformal inference framework, our method first constructs p-values that quantify the statistical evidence for large outcomes; it then determines the shortlist by comparing the p-values to a threshold introduced in the multiple testing literature. In many cases, the procedure selects candidates whose predictions are above a data-dependent threshold. Our theoretical guarantee holds under mild exchangeability conditions on the samples, generalizing existing results on multiple conformal p-values. We demonstrate the empirical performance of our method via simulations, and apply it to job hiring and drug discovery datasets.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.01408v3","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.01408v3.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"selection-by-prediction-with-conformal-p","repo_url":"https://github.com/ying531/selcf_paper","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok"}},{"paper_slug":"selection-by-prediction-with-conformal-p","repo_url":"https://github.com/ying531/conformal-selection","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"decision-making","task_name":"Decision Making"},{"task_slug":"drug-discovery","task_name":"Drug Discovery"},{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"},{"task_slug":"scientific-discovery","task_name":"scientific discovery"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":"https://syntology.ai/paper/2210.01408","atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2210.01408","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2210.01408"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-25T09:33:49+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. Samples come from repositories linked to the paper, official or community; repo_kind says which.","repos":[{"provenance":"external:paperswithcode_snapshot_2025-07-28","url":"https://github.com/ying531/selcf_paper","reach":{"status":"ok"}},{"provenance":"external:paperswithcode_snapshot_2025-07-28","url":"https://github.com/ying531/conformal-selection","reach":null}],"summary":{"ran_fixture":3},"by_repo_kind":{"listed":{"samples":3,"ran":3,"repositories":1}},"repo_kind_vocabulary":{"official":"The archive marks this repository official for the paper","named_in_paper":"The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official","listed":"In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper","found_in_text":"Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted","community":"Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested"},"n_pointer_only_for_licence":3,"samples":[{"code_sha256_prefix":"6ebe6009665a9c5d","entry":"BH","repo":"ying531/conformal-selection","repo_kind":"listed","path":"confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","file_url":"https://github.com/ying531/conformal-selection/blob/HEAD/confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"ran_fixture","verification_level":1,"contract_check":"RAISES","metamorphic_tier":"invariant","behaviour_fingerprint":true,"licence":"NONE","inline_ok":false,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"6ebe6009665a9c5d"}},{"code_sha256_prefix":"ce0fa8fa76da27ab","entry":"weighted_BH","repo":"ying531/conformal-selection","repo_kind":"listed","path":"confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","file_url":"https://github.com/ying531/conformal-selection/blob/HEAD/confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"ran_fixture","verification_level":1,"contract_check":"RAISES","metamorphic_tier":"deterministic","behaviour_fingerprint":true,"licence":"NONE","inline_ok":false,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"ce0fa8fa76da27ab"}},{"code_sha256_prefix":"5998afd723e6298c","entry":"weighted_CS","repo":"ying531/conformal-selection","repo_kind":"listed","path":"confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","file_url":"https://github.com/ying531/conformal-selection/blob/HEAD/confselect-python/ConfSelect/confselect.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"ran_fixture","verification_level":1,"contract_check":"RAISES","metamorphic_tier":"deterministic","behaviour_fingerprint":true,"licence":"NONE","inline_ok":false,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"5998afd723e6298c"}}]},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}