{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/revisiting-llms-as-zero-shot-time-series","title":"Revisiting LLMs as Zero-Shot Time-Series Forecasters: Small Noise Can Break Large Models","arxiv_id":"2506.00457","date":"2025-05-31","proceeding":null,"authors":["Junwoo Park","Hyuck Lee","Dohyun Lee","Daehoon Gwak","Jaegul Choo"],"abstract":"Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance across diverse tasks without domain-specific training, fueling interest in their potential for time-series forecasting. While LLMs have shown potential in zero-shot forecasting through prompting alone, recent studies suggest that LLMs lack inherent effectiveness in forecasting. Given these conflicting findings, a rigorous validation is essential for drawing reliable conclusions. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs as zero-shot forecasters compared to state-of-the-art domain-specific models. Our experiments show that LLM-based zero-shot forecasters often struggle to achieve high accuracy due to their sensitivity to noise, underperforming even simple domain-specific models. We have explored solutions to reduce LLMs' sensitivity to noise in the zero-shot setting, but improving their robustness remains a significant challenge. Our findings suggest that rather than emphasizing zero-shot forecasting, a more promising direction would be to focus on fine-tuning LLMs to better process numerical sequences. Our experimental code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/revisiting-LLMs-zeroshot-forecaster.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00457v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.00457v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"revisiting-llms-as-zero-shot-time-series","repo_url":"https://github.com/junwoopark92/revisiting-llms-zeroshot-forecaster","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"jax","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"MIT"}}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"sensitivity","task_name":"Sensitivity"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series-forecasting","task_name":"Time Series Forecasting"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"focus","method_name":"Focus"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2506.00457","mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}