{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/reliable-probabilistic-human-trajectory","title":"Reliable Probabilistic Human Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Applications","arxiv_id":"2410.06905","date":"2024-10-09","proceeding":null,"authors":["Manuel Hetzel","Hannes Reichert","Konrad Doll","Bernhard Sick"],"abstract":"Autonomous systems, like vehicles or robots, require reliable, accurate, fast, resource-efficient, scalable, and low-latency trajectory predictions to get initial knowledge about future locations and movements of surrounding objects for safe human-machine interaction. Furthermore, they need to know the uncertainty of the predictions for risk assessment to provide safe path planning. This paper presents a lightweight method to address these requirements, combining Long Short-Term Memory and Mixture Density Networks. Our method predicts probability distributions, including confidence level estimations for positional uncertainty to support subsequent risk management applications and runs on a low-power embedded platform. We discuss essential requirements for human trajectory prediction in autonomous vehicle applications and demonstrate our method's performance using multiple traffic-related datasets. Furthermore, we explain reliability and sharpness metrics and show how important they are to guarantee the correctness and robustness of a model's predictions and uncertainty assessments. These essential evaluations have so far received little attention for no good reason. Our approach focuses entirely on real-world applicability. Verifying prediction uncertainties and a model's reliability are central to autonomous real-world applications. Our framework and code are available at: https://github.com/kav-institute/mdn_trajectory_forecasting.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.06905v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.06905v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"reliable-probabilistic-human-trajectory","repo_url":"https://github.com/kav-institute/mdn_trajectory_forecasting","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"pytorch","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"Apache-2.0"}}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"},{"task_slug":"trajectory-prediction","task_name":"Trajectory Prediction"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"attention","method_name":"Attention"},{"method_slug":"softmax","method_name":"Softmax"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}